The April jobs report topped economists' expectations by a wide margin, and the unemployment rate ticked down to a level last seen since 1969. Most importantly, there's the labor market, which remains far too robust for the Fed's comfort. A separate survey of professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia projects real GDP growth of just 1.3% this year.įor context, in the decade prior to the pandemic, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%. The GDP outlook for 2023 is unquestionably downbeat too, with some forecasters putting the probability of recession at 60% or greater. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.1% during the first three months of 2023, down from the 2.6% growth seen in the final quarter of 2022. Gross domestic product decelerated once again in the first quarter, hurt by high inflation, rising interest rates and turmoil in the banking sector. After all, retail sales have declined in four of the past six months.Īnd then there's the bigger picture. It's also still too soon to call the all-clear sign for consumers. Other data are likewise complicating the Fed's mission.Īlthough U.S consumers showed some resilience in April, with retail sales rising 0.4% vs a revised 0.7% decline the prior month, spending came in lower than economists' forecast for 0.8% growth. The 11 Most Expensive Cities to Live in the U.S. "In fact, the report showed that inflation remains remarkably sticky, which doesn't correspond to virtually any practical thinker's timeline of when inflation might be expected to start to come down further." "The CPI report continues to depict inflation that is just too high for most people's good, especially the Federal Reserve’s," said Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income. The slower rate of inflation, which came in below economists' expectations, should theoretically give the Federal Reserve room to pause its long campaign of interest rate hikes.īut experts say the CPI report doesn't exactly give the Fed a slam-dunk case for putting rate hikes on hold. Inflation cooled moderately in April, with prices rising by less than 5% on an annual basis for the first time in two years, according to the CPI report. Meanwhile, the economic data aren't conclusively helping the case for lower interest rates – even as rate increases put stress on the banking sector and threaten to push the economy into recession. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.įOREXLIVE™ may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.The 15 Most Expensive Housing Markets in the U.S. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect's individual analysis and decision making. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.įOREXLIVE™ is not an investment advisor, FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. You could lose some or all your initial investment do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors.
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